Standoff in Ukraine
(Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg) July 13 at 2:36 PM
The allure of the West has helped shape Russian history since Peter the Great three centuries ago. Now itâs shattering even older bonds with Russiaâs neighbor, Ukraine. In 2013, a rebellion sparked by pro-European Ukrainians seeking a decisive break from the nationâs Soviet past set in motion a chain of events that created the tensest standoff between Russia and the West since the Cold War. Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed Ukraineâs Crimean peninsula in March 2014, proclaiming a duty to defend the ethnic Russians who dominate the population there and sending shockwaves through the post-World War II order.
More than four years of conflict in rebel-h eld eastern Ukraine have claimed in exess of 10,000 lives. Diplomatic efforts have run aground, with the government in Kiev and Russian-backed separatists blaming each other for reneging on a 2015 peace accord. While the fighting is down from peak levels, Ukraineâs military reports periodic flare-ups. The casualties include the passengers and crew of a Malaysian Air jet shot down over the conflict zone in 2014. The U.S. and the European Union have imposed sanctions on Russia over Crimea and its military backing for separatist militias in Ukraine. What began as peaceful street protests in Kiev in 2013 turned into a global geopolitical impasse when a popular uprising turned deadly and Ukraineâs Moscow-backed President Viktor Yanukovych fled. Ukrainians voted decisively to tighten ties with Europe in a 2014 election, though many are frustrated by the pace of change. Disbursements from a $17.5 billion International Monetary Fund bailout, sealed after the conflict choked the economy and drained reserves, have been delayed by heel-dragging on reforms. U.S. President Donald Trumpâs rapport with Putin has raised questions about continued Western support for Ukraine, while cracks are starting to appear in the EU unity needed to maintain the blocâs sanctions against Russia.
Ukraine and Russia trace their roots to the ninth century, when a collection of tribes founded Kievan Rus around modern-day Kiev. Ukraine struggled to carve out a national identity, falling under Moscowâs sway through most of the Russian and Soviet empires. More recently the two countries have been bound together by energy: Ukraineâs pipelines provide transit for Russian natural gas en route to European markets, though the country has found alternatives to Russian supplies for its own gas needs. The Soviet legacy still looms large and Ukrainian unity has often been in short supply. While language and ethnic differences donât tell the whole story, and the con flict with Russia has brought many Ukrainians together, the country of 42 million remains divided with mainly Russian-speaking regions in the east and the Ukrainian-speaking provinces of the west near the border with Poland, Slovakia and Hungary. One side backs pursuit of EU and NATO membership; the other prefers a Russian-led customs union.
What began as a dispute over whether Ukraine would face east or west has raised broader questions about its future as a unified state. Western-oriented Ukrainians hope that aligning the countryâs future with the EU will strengthen institutions, bolster democracy and stem a slide back toward the days of Soviet rule. The enthusiastic support in Russia for Putinâs actions underscored the growing gulf between the worldviews of Moscow, Kiev, the U.S. and Europe. Russiaâs oil and gas once tied all sides together. While Putin has revoked discounts that amounted to a crucial subsidy for Ukraine, his country still provide s one-third of the EUâs gas imports. The longer-term durability of the EUâs sanctions, which prompted Russia to put a retaliatory ban on food imports from the bloc, is unclear. The populist government elected in Italy in 2018 is sympathetic toward Putin and its vote could be enough to prevent the penalties from being extended.The Reference Shelf
â¢ A report by the Center for Strategic & International Studies discusses the volatile energy ties between Ukraine and Russia.
â¢ A Wesleyan University professorâs 2013 analysis of demonstrations, âUkraineâs Identity Crisis: Understanding the Protests and the Politics.â
â¢ Bloomberg QuickTakes on the politics of Russian gas, the Cool War between Russia and the West and Vladimir Putin.
â¢ A series of maps from the New York Times showing how the situation in Ukraine has unfolded.
â¢ An interactive timeline by the BBC on the crisis in Ukraine.
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First published April 14, 2015
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